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Current research areas: |
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Forensic statistics: Evidence evaluation,
Quality assessment, Sampling |
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Food and Environment: Statistical
modelling and Sampling |
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Methods: |
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Resampling, Bayesian hypothesis testing,
Bayesian networks |
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Current projects: |
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“Improving Bayesian Network computational
and modelling methods, with applications in forensics.” (VR 2012-5994) “Evaluation of CBRN analyses using new
statistical tools.” (MSB) |
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“Implementation of Nuclear Techniques to
Improve Food Traceability” CRP D5.20.37. Joint FAO/IAEA Division on
Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. |
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Recent contributions to conferences and
meetings and invited seminars: |
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Date and place |
Conference/meeting |
Contribution(s) |
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Nov
14, Lund, Sweden |
MiniWorkshop in Forensic Statistics, Mathematical Sciences, Lund University |
Invited
Talk: “Probabilistic interpretation of forensic
findings as part of the full evaluation of evidence” |
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Nov
13-14, 2014, Lund, Sweden |
Symposium om bevisvärdering,
Faculty of Law, Lund University |
Invited Talk: ”Värdering av forensiska resultat som del av bevisvärderingen” (with B.
Rasmusson) |
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Oct 28-29, 2014 |
Seminars at School of Mathematics and
Statistics, University of Glasgow, and at School of Mathematics, University
of Edinburgh, UK |
“The Bayes factor in environmental
forensic inference - with an application to ashes in dispute” |
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Oct 23-24, 2014, Tromsø, Norway |
DNA.bevis og Statistikk,
Universitetet i Tromsø |
Invited Talk: ”Värdering och rapportering av forensiska resultat vid SKL” |
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Aug
19-22, 2014, Leiden, The Netherlands |
9th International Conference
on Forensic Inference and Statistics (ICFIS2014) |
Contributed
Talk: “The Multivariate Kernel Likelihood Ratio
Method Applied on Comparison of Amphetamine Seizures” (co-authors: K. Andersson & C. Högberg) Co-author
on Keynote Talk: “Bayes Factor Evidence of a Ricin
Preparation” Method (Corresp. Author and presenter: Susanne Wiklund Lindström, co-author:
C. Åstot) Contributed
Posters: “Indirect Evaluation by Simulation of a
Bayesian Network” (with A. Emanuelson, S. Mannerskog, U. Svensson, K. Ekberg, L. Jonasson,
M. Lövby, K. Brorsson-Läthen,
E. Leitet); “Interpretation of DNA Evidence:
Implications of Thresholds Used in the Forensic Laboratory” (with R. Ansell & Ronny Hedell) |
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June 4-6, 2014, Riga, Latvia |
Annual meeting of ENFSI SoC WG |
Invited
Talk: “Interpreting findings – evaluation and
conclusions about what happened at the crime scene” (with G. Carlsson) |
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List of publications: |
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Publication |
Journal/ Proceed./ Tech.Rep. |
Peer-reviewed |
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Nordgaard
A., Rasmusson B. (2014). Värdering av forensiska resultat som del i
bevisvärderingen. Kriminalteknik 4,
2014. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard
A., Wiklund Lindström S., Åstot C. (2014). Klassificering av ricin. Kriminalteknik 3, 2014. Statens
Kriminaltekniska Labooratorium, Sweden |
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Nordgaard
A. (2014). Olika modeller för resultatvärdering – Är de olika? Kriminalteknik 2, 2014. Statens
Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard
A. (2013). I kölvattnet av RvT. Kriminalteknik 3, 2013. Statens
Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard A: (2013). Värdering på brottsplats. Kriminalteknik 3, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard
A., Ansell R. (2013). Statistikens roll i forensiken.
Kriminalteknik 2, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska
Laboratorium, Sweden |
J |
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Nordgaard
A. (2013). Forensisk resultatvärdering – statistikämnets roll på ett kriminaltekniskt laboratorium. Quintensen 1, 2013. Svenska Statistikfrämjandet, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard
A., Drotz W. (2013). Värdering av fynd på brottsplats. Kriminalteknik 1, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium,
Linköping, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard A., Rasmusson B. (2012). The likelihood
ratio as value of evidence – more than a question of numbers. Law, Probability and Risk 11(4): 303-315. [doi:10.1093/lpr/mgs016] |
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Nordgaard
A., Hedell R., Ansell R. (2012). Assessment of forensic
findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods –
“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome. Science
and Justice 52 (4): 226-236..
[doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2011.12.001] |
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Nordgaard A., Hedberg
K., Widén C, Ansell R. (2012).Comments on ”The
database search problem” with respect to a recent publication in Forensic
Science International. Letter to the editor. Forensic Science International 217: e32-e33.
[doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2011.11.023] |
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Nordgaard A., Ansell R., Drotz W., Jaeger L. (2012) Scale of conclusions for the value of evidence. Law, Probability and Risk 11(1):
1-24. [doi:10.1093/lpr/mgr020] |
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Nordgaard
A. (2011). Resultatvärdering med Bayesianska
nätverk. Kriminalteknik 4, 2011.
Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden. |
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Lundquist
P., Nordgaard A. (2011). Statistisk analys av narkotikahalter i material från
polisbeslag analyserade på SKL. SKL Rapport 2011:12. Statens Kriminaltekniska
Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden. |
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Digréus P., Andersson A-C., Nilsson J., Dufva C., Nordgaard A., Ansell R. (2011). Contamination
monitoring in the forensic DNA laboratory and a simple graphical model for
unbiased EPG classification. Forensic Science International: Genetics, Supplement Series, 2011;3:e299-e300 |
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Hedell
R., Nordgaard A., Ansell R. (2011). Discrepancies
between forensic DNA databases. Forensic
Science International: Genetics, Supplement Series, 2011;3:e135-e136 |
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Nordgaard
A. (2011) SKL:s utlåtandeskala. Kriminalteknik
2,2011. Statens
Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden. |
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Nordgaard A. & Höglund
T. (2011). Assessment of Approximate Likelihood Ratios from Continuous
Distributions: A Case Study of Digital Camera Identification. Journal of
Forensic Sciences 56(2): 390-402. |
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Hedman
J., Ansell R., Nordgaard A. (2010). A ranking index for
quality assessment of forensic DNA profiles. BMC Research Notes 2010 3:290. |
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Nordgaard A., Wistedt
I., Drotz W., Elmqvist
J., Höglund T., Jaeger L., Torbjörnsson
M., Palmborg J., Sullivan S., Wigilius I. (2010). Uppfattning av värdeord i
sakkunnigutlåtanden – En studie genomförd bland olika aktörer i
rättsprocessen i Sverige. SKL Rapport 2010:01. Statens Kriminaltekniska
Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden. |
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Hedman
J., Nordgaard A., Dufva C., Rasmusson B., Ansell R. & Rådström P. (2010).
Synergy between DNA polymerases increases polymerase
chain reaction inhibitor tolerance in forensic DNA analysis. Analytical
Biochemistry 405: 192-200. |
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Hedman
J,. Nordgaard A., Rasmusson B., Ansell R. &
Rådström P. (2009). Improved forensic DNA analysis through
the use of alternative DNA polymerases and statistical modeling
of DNA profiles. Biotechniques 47
(5): 951-958. |
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Nordgaard A. & Grimvall A. (2006). A
resampling technique for estimating the power of non-parametric trend tests. Environmetrics 17: 257-267 |
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Nordgaard A. (2005). Quantifying experience
in sample size determination for drug analysis of seized drugs. Law,
Probability and Risk 4: 217-225. |
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Nordgaard A. (2003) Impact of Sampling
Frequency on the Power of Nonparametric Tests for Water Quality Trends. In: The
Information Society and Enlargement of the European Union, part 2 (A. Gnauck, R. Heindrich, eds.). Metropolis-Verlag,
Marburg. |
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Libiseller C. & Nordgaard A. (2002). Variance Reduction for Trend Analysis
of Hydrochemical Data in Brackish Waters. In: Environmental
Communication in the Information Society, part 1 (W. Pillmann,
K. Tochtermann, eds.) ISEP, Vienna. |
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Nordgaard A. (1996). Computer-intensive
methods for dependent observations. PhD thesis. Linköping Studies in
Science and Technology. Dissertations No. 209. |
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Nordgaard A. & Hjorth
U. (1993). Statistical extrapolation of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic
Sea. Environmetrics 4: 279-309. |
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Nordgaard A. (1992). Resampling
Stochastic Processes using a Bootstrap Approach. In: Bootstrapping and
Related Techniques (K.H. Jöckel, G. Rothe, W. Sendler, eds.)
Lecture notes in Econometrics and Mathematical Systems 376. SpringerVerlag, Berlin. |
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Contributions to conferences and meetings
and invited seminars |
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Date and place |
Conference/meeting |
Contribution(s) |
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Nov 14, Lund, Sweden |
MiniWorkshop in Forensic Statistics, Mathematical
Sciences, Lund University |
Invited Talk: “Probabilistic interpretation of forensic findings
as part of the full evaluation of evidence” |
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Nov 13-14, 2014, Lund, Sweden |
Symposium om bevisvärdering,
Faculty of Law, Lund University |
Invited Talk: ”Värdering av forensiska
resultat som del av bevisvärderingen” (with B. Rasmusson) |
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Oct 28-29,
2014 |
Seminars at School of Mathematics and
Statistics, University of Glasgow, and at School of Mathematics, University
of Edinburgh, UK |
“The Bayes factor in environmental
forensic inference - with an application to ashes in dispute” |
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Oct 23-24,
2014, Tromsø, Norway |
DNA.bevis og Statistikk, Universitetet i
Tromsø |
Invited Talk: ”Värdering och
rapportering av forensiska resultat vid SKL” |
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Aug 19-22, 2014, Leiden, The Netherlands |
9th International Conference on
Forensic Inference and Statistics (ICFIS2014) |
Contributed Talk: “The Multivariate Kernel Likelihood Ratio Method
Applied on Comparison of Amphetamine Seizures” (co-authors: K. Andersson & C. Högberg) Co-author on Keynote Talk: “Bayes Factor Evidence of a Ricin
Preparation” Method (Corresp. Author and presenter: Susanne Wiklund Lindström, co-author:
C. Åstot) Contributed Posters: “Indirect Evaluation by Simulation of a Bayesian
Network” (with A. Emanuelson,
S. Mannerskog, U. Svensson,
K. Ekberg, L. Jonasson, M. Lövby,
K. Brorsson-Läthen, E. Leitet);
“Interpretation of DNA Evidence: Implications of Thresholds Used in the
Forensic Laboratory” (with R. Ansell
& Ronny Hedell) |
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June 4-6, 2014, Riga, Latvia |
Annual meeting of ENFSI SoC WG |
Invited Talk: “Interpreting findings – evaluation and conclusions
about what happened at the crime scene” (with
G. Carlsson) |
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Dec 5, 2013, Oslo, Norway |
Fagdag, Nasjonalt ID-senter, Oslo |
Invited Talk: ”Grundläggande resultatvärdering” |
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May 31, Lund, Sweden |
Seminar at Mathematical Sciences, Lund
University |
“Statistical Models for Evidence
Evaluation” |
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July 1-4, 2013, Krakow, Poland |
FORSTAT 2013. 7th workshop on forensic
evidence and statistical evaluation |
Lecture: “Activity level and evaluative reports on forensic
science evidence” |
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Sep 28-29, 2012, Vienna, Austria |
Short course on Sampling, Joint FAO/IAEA
Division on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture: Train-the-trainers
workshop |
Lectures and tutorials (with R. Correll) |
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Aug 20-23, 2012, The Hague, Netherlands |
5th European Academy of Forensic Science
Conference |
Co-organiser and contributor, Mini-Workshop on
“Interdisciplinary casework” |
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June 10-14, 2012, Umeå,
Sweden |
24th Nordic Conference in
Mathematical Statistics (Nordstat 2012) |
Contributed Talk: “Challenges in forensic evidence evaluation” |
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Sep 7-9, 2011, Lausanne, Switzerland |
SPTM2011. Ninth annual
meeting of the ENFSI marks working group |
Contributed Talk: “Construction of a scale of conclusions
and its use for all types of forensic evidence” |
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Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2011, Vienna, Austria |
ISFG2011. 24th World Congress
of the International Society for Forensic Genetics |
Contributed poster: “’Blame the brother’-Assessment of forensic DNA
evidence when alternative explanations have different likelihoods” (with R. Hedell and R. Ansell) Contributed poster: “’Discrepancies between forensic DNA databases”
(with R. Hedell and R. Ansell) |
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June 15-17, 2011, Krakow, Poland |
FORSTAT 2011. Fifth workshop on forensic evidence and
statistical evaluation |
Invited talk: Scales of reporting the value of evidence |
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Sep 8-11, 2010, Stockholm, Sweden |
ESWG 2010 (English-Speaking
Working Group of the International Society of Forensic Genetics) |
Invited
talk: "The forensic DNA profile index - a
tool for comparison of electropherograms"
(with J. Hedman and R. Ansell) |
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June 25, 2010, Universidad de
Margarita, Venezuela |
Short course on Sampling
(in association with TIES2010, see below) |
Lectures
(with R. Correll) |
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June 21-24, 2010, Isla Margarita,
Venezuela |
The 21st Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society |
Invited
talk: "Change-point detection in
environmental time series –A Bayesian approach" (with Du Yang) |
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Sep 8-11, 2009, Glasgow, UK |
5th European Academy of
Forensic Science Conference |
Invited
talk: "Ordinal scales of conclusions for
the value of evidence" (with R. Ansell, L. Jaeger and W. Drotz) |
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Aug 20-23, 2008, Lausanne, Switzerland |
The 7th International
Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics |
Contributed
talk: "The use of likelihood ratios in
digital camera identification" (with T. Höglund) |
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Feb 4, 2008, Stockholm, Sweden |
Statistisk metod & analys - Skarpsynt utredning
genom träffsäker datainsamling, IQPC |
Invited talk:
"Hållbar utveckling - aktuella statistiska utmaningar och problem i
arbetet med miljöfrågor och utvecklingsövervakning" |
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Aug 22-29, 2007, Lisbon, Portugal |
56th Session of The
International Statistical Institute |
Invited
talk: "Resampling species-wise collected abundance
data for flexible assessment of changes in biodiversity" Special contributed
talk: "Uncertainty in water quality data
and its implications for trend detection" (with K. Wahlin and A.
Grimvall) |
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June 18-22, 2006, Kalmar, Sweden |
The 17th Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society |
Invited
talk: "Resampling species-wise abundance
data" |
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March, 2005, Tempe AZ, USA |
The 6th International
Conference on Forensic Statistics |
Contributed
talk: "Sample-size Determination for
Analysis of Ecstasy Pills" |
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Aug, 2004, Prague, Czech Republic |
COMPSTAT 2004 |
Contributed
talk: "A resampling technique for
estimating the power of non-parametric trend tests" |
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Nov 2003, Johannesburg, South Africa |
The 14th Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society |
Contributed
talk: "Power of non-parametric trend
tests -- a semi-parametric approach" |
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Sep 2003, Cottbus, Germany |
17th International
Conference, Informatics for Environmental Protection |
Contributed
talk: "Impact of sampling frequencies on
the power of nonparametric tests for water quality trends" |
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Apr 29, Umeå,
Sweden |
Seminar at Department of Statistics, Umeå University, Sweden |
“Estimation of
power in trends of water quality data” |
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June 2003, Lund, Sweden |
SPRUCE VI, International
conference |
Contributed
talk: "Impact of sampling frequency on
the power of nonparametric tests for water quality trends" |
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Sep 2002, Vienna, Austria |
16th International
Conference, Informatics for Environmental Protection |
Contributed
talk: "Variance Reduction for Trend
Analysis of Hydrochemical Data in Brackish
Waters" (with C. Libiseller) |
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June 2002, Genova,
Italy |
Short course on Estimation
of human impact on the environment (in association with TIES2002) |
Tutorials |
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June 2002, Stockholm, Sweden |
NORDSTAT 2002 |
Contributed
talk: "Variance reduction for trend
analysis" (with C. Libiseller) |
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Aug 2001, Portland OR, USA |
The 12th Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society |
Contributed
talk: "Geostatistical
normalisation of nutrient concentrations in marine environments" (with
A. Grimvall) |
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March 2001, Lüneburg,
Germany |
8th International Meeting
on Statistical Climatology |
Contributed
talk: "Simulating meteorological data by
block resampling" (with Å. Forsman and A.
Grimvall) |
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Sep 2000, Sheffield, UK |
The 11th Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society
(jointly with SPRUCE) |
Contributed
talk: "Trends in depth profiles of
marine hydro-chemical data" (with A. Grimvall) |
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Aug 1995, Aarhus, Denmark |
21st European Meeting of
Statisticians |
Contributed
talk: "Resampling the empirical spectral
measure" |
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Aug 1992, Helsinki, Finland |
The 4th Annual Conference
of The International Environmetrics Society |
Contributed
talk: "Statistical extrapolation of
nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea" (with U. Hjorth) |
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June 1990, Trier, Germany |
International conference on
Bootstrapping and Related Techniques |
Contributed
talk: "Resampling Stochastic Processes
using a Bootstrap Approach" |
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